Bitcoin spent most of December trading in a tight range between $85,000 and $90,000, following sharp corrections earlier in the fourth quarter of 2025. As the new year begins, the cryptocurrency has again tested resistance near $90,500, but traders remain cautious about the market’s next move.
On January 2, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s outlook after a roughly 4% gain since the start of 2026. He highlighted a simultaneous increase in Coinbase premiums for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating stronger buying activity from U.S. investors. The Coinbase premium measures how much more or less U.S. participants are paying compared with other markets and is often used as a gauge of U.S. demand.
Despite the recent uptick, Kesmeci noted that premiums for both assets remain negative, suggesting that many U.S. investors are still wary and that the latest price recovery may not yet be fully backed by domestic inflows.
Looking ahead, Kesmeci outlined several technical levels he believes will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory:
- Short-term trend: For a near-term bullish move, Bitcoin needs to hold its 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) above approximately $89,415 for at least the next two days. A drop below this level would point to continued consolidation rather than a clear breakout.
- Long-term structure: A more decisive bullish trend, according to Kesmeci, would likely emerge only if Bitcoin can move above $101,000. This level marks the intersection of the 365-day and 111-day simple moving averages (SMA365 and SMA111), making it both a structural and psychological resistance zone.
A sustained move beyond $101,000 would, in his view, signal a restoration of Bitcoin’s broader bullish market structure after the extended correction seen in late 2025.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,520, up 0.85% over the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume has surged by 11,471%, pointing to heightened market activity. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $1.79 trillion, giving it a 58.6% share of the total cryptocurrency market value.