Bitcoin’s recent 50% rally from April lows below $74,000 to nearly $112,000 is showing signs of slowing, but traders remain optimistic about higher price targets in 2025. Analysts emphasize several factors needed for Bitcoin to break into new price discovery in the coming weeks.
MVRV Momentum Signals Late Bull Cycle Stage
Following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin rebounded and reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average near $106,000. However, CryptoQuant data shows the market value realized value (MVRV) ratio momentum is stalling. Analyst Yonsei_dent noted the decline in MVRV does not indicate an imminent downtrend but suggests entry into a late bull cycle phase.
The current MVRV slope at 2.22 remains well below the overvalued zone above 3.7, indicating room for further growth. Renewed MVRV momentum, supported by longer-term holding and ETF inflows, could push Bitcoin beyond $112,000 toward analyst projections above $165,000.
Decline in Onchain Transfer and Spot Trading Volumes
Bitcoin’s market shows signs of cooling as onchain transfer volume dropped about 32% to $52 billion from late May’s peak of $76 billion. Spot trading volume also decreased, currently near $7.7 billion, well below previous cyclical highs in this bull run. This divergence signals reduced speculative activity.
Glassnode’s Week Onchain report highlighted that unlike prior rallies in Q2 and Q4 2024, the recent advance to $111,000 did not see a surge in spot volume, reflecting lower investor engagement. Increased spot volume typically signals stronger market conviction and often precedes breakouts.
Crypto insights provider Alva pointed out that a high-volume push above $107,500 is needed to trigger a genuine breakout. Glassnode concluded that while the overall bull trend remains intact, renewed demand, increased activity, and investor conviction are critical to reaching new highs soon.
Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch
Bitcoin has been trading between $100,000 and $110,000, with resistance in the $108,000-$110,000 range. The bullish outlook depends on flipping this resistance into solid support.
Popular analyst AlphaBTC said a strong effort is required to surpass the $108,000-$110,000 zone, suggesting a likely pullback to $104,000-$105,000 before gaining upward momentum. Closing above $109,000 on a four-hour chart could set the stage for new all-time highs.
Rekt Capital emphasized that bulls must clear the final major weekly resistance above $108,000. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, identified $109,000 as the crucial level to break for upward momentum, anticipating an imminent breakout.
Recent reports noted that the $108,000-$110,000 range attracts significant liquidity clusters up to $111,000, making it a key target for traders.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks, and readers should conduct independent research before making decisions.