Bitcoin started 2026 trading near $87,500 ahead of the first Wall Street session of the year, following a weak close to 2025.
Market analysts pointed to technical signals suggesting volatility could increase in the coming weeks.
Trader Jelle highlighted a bullish divergence on the three-day relative strength index (RSI), noting on X that bitcoin had a “locked in 3-day bull div” at key support and that “$BTC looks good for upside this quarter.”
Other commentators focused on volatility bands. Quantdata21 observed that daily Bollinger Band width had narrowed to a rare extreme while the weekly RSI remained below 40.
“There is only one other occasion that daily bollinger band width has squeezed this tight with weekly RSI below 40. That was january 2023, and we all know what happened to bitcoin from there,” the analyst wrote.
The backdrop is bitcoin’s unusual performance in 2025. The cryptocurrency closed the year with its first red 12-month candle in a post-halving period, reviving debate over whether bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle still holds.
Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of bitcoin security firm Bnk To The Future, wrote “RIP Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle,” describing 2026 as a “new era” for the asset.
Trader Michal van de Poppe, meanwhile, projected a push higher in the near term, saying he anticipated a test of $90,000 in the coming week.