On-chain data reveals a significant slowdown in Bitcoin activity over the past month. This trend could hint at what lies ahead for the cryptocurrency.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted on X that the 30-day change in Bitcoin’s active supply percentage has turned negative. This metric tracks the portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply that has been transacted within the last 180 days.
The data shows a recent sharp decline, with the metric currently at -17%, indicating 17% less activity compared to a month ago. This suggests reduced transaction engagement among holders.
Historically, spikes in active supply coincided with bullish runs, such as late last year and Q1 2024, when previously dormant coins became active during rallies. However, Bitcoin’s return above $100,000 earlier this year did not trigger increased activity, and instead, the metric decreased significantly despite price consolidation above that level.
Similar drops in active supply occurred in September 2024 and after the May 2021 crash, both followed by strong upward price momentum. Whether Bitcoin will follow this historical pattern again or if the current lull will persist remains uncertain.
Bitcoin’s price recently pulled back to around $105,000 but quickly recovered to approximately $107,200, maintaining a sideways trading range.