Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 under pressure, trading more than 30% below its all-time high and flashing a technical warning signal that some analysts say could precede a deeper decline.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading just above $89,200. On December 8, its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) crossed on the weekly chart, forming a so-called death cross, according to market analyst Ali Martinez, who highlighted the move on X (formerly Twitter).
A death cross, where a shorter-term moving average falls below a longer-term one, is often viewed as a sign that downside momentum may be building. Martinez noted that previous crosses between Bitcoin’s 10-week and 50-week SMAs have historically been followed by sizeable corrections.
On past occasions, similar crossovers preceded declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022. Based on this pattern, Martinez suggested Bitcoin could face a new correction of 50%–60%, implying a potential range between $50,000 and $38,000.
Another analyst, known as Mags, outlined two possible paths for Bitcoin in the near term, focusing on the relationship between BTC and Tether’s USDT dominance.
After falling from its October highs above $126,000, Bitcoin has hovered around $85,000 for several weeks. Over the same period, USDT dominance has broken out of its prior range and is holding above that breakout zone. Because Bitcoin and USDT dominance tend to move inversely, Mags sees this shift as a key signal.
- Bullish scenario: If USDT dominance begins to retreat and the breakout proves to be a false move, Mags argues that Bitcoin could resume its uptrend, potentially reaching a new all-time high before entering a major distribution phase.
- Bearish scenario: If broader market momentum weakens, Bitcoin could see only a brief bounce while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range and then climbs again. Under this setup, BTC would likely enter a slow distribution phase, marked by choppy, gradual downside rather than a sharp crash.
According to Mags, how USDT dominance behaves from here will be central to determining whether the market is pausing before another leg higher or transitioning into an extended distribution period following Bitcoin’s recent peak.