Bitcoin remained near $108,000 over the weekend as traders prepared for a significant week of global macroeconomic events. The focus centers on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual policy forum in Sintra and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Tuesday appearance.
While price movement has been limited, derivatives and on-chain data indicate potential upcoming volatility. Market participants are watching for changes in central bank communication that could influence risk appetite in both crypto and traditional markets.
Independent on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted increased whale activity, with large Bitcoin volumes moving onto centralized exchanges. This trend, combined with declining exchange reserves and weakening stablecoin inflows, often signals a forthcoming period of higher volatility.
Adler suggested that as long as Bitcoin holds $108,000, an upward move toward $112,000 remains the base case.
Powell is expected to maintain a cautious tone on interest rates, emphasizing the need for clearer inflation and labor market data before easing monetary policy. The ECB Forum, themed “Adapting to change,” will feature Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and other central bankers discussing policy adjustments amid fragile global growth.
Derivatives markets reflect differing sentiment across cryptocurrencies. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Finance, observed a surge in trading volume—$806,000—in synthetic Ethereum and Bitcoin volatility index perpetuals on gTrade, highlighting growing demand for directional volatility exposure ahead of policy announcements.
Bitcoin options show a defensive stance. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, reported that about 20% of open interest clusters on downside puts at strikes of $85,000, $100,000, and $106,000, indicating trader caution against macroeconomic risks or profit-taking.
In contrast, Ethereum markets lean bullish. Elevated call options activity at $2,900 and $3,200 strikes suggests traders are anticipating positive momentum, likely driven by the upcoming ETHCC event in Cannes, historically linked to product launches and ecosystem growth.