Michael Saylor7s Bitcoin-centered company Strategy is again approaching a critical valuation level as its market-to-net-asset-value multiple (mNAV) hovers just above 1.0, threatening the logic of using the stock as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure.
In early trading on January 2, Strategy shares posted a modest gain after months of declines. Even with the bounce, the stock is still down about 66% from its July peak.
Strategy7s mNAV, which compares the company7s market value to the worth of its Bitcoin holdings, recently stood near 1.02. A sustained move below 1.0 would imply the market is valuing the company at less than the Bitcoin it owns.
The distinction is significant because investor interest in Strategy has historically depended on the stock trading at a premium to its Bitcoin reserves. When mNAV drops below 1.0, investors can theoretically obtain cheaper exposure by buying Bitcoin directly rather than holding a stock that represents it.
Periods when Strategy trades at a discount to its holdings have previously triggered selling pressure, as the justification for taking on corporate risk, potential dilution, and management costs weakens.
The company7s balance sheet underscores the tension. Strategy holds 672,497 bitcoin, the largest corporate stash globally, accumulated since August 2020 at an average purchase price of about $75,000 per coin. With Bitcoin trading around $90,000, the holdings are worth roughly $60.7 billion, leaving an unrealized gain of about 20%.
By contrast, Strategy7s basic market capitalization is closer to $45 billion, with a diluted valuation near $50 billion, already reflecting a discount to the underlying assets.
On an enterprise value basis, which incorporates debt and cash, Strategy7s mNAV is estimated just below 1.0. That proximity is drawing scrutiny because the company has relied on issuing equity at a premium to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. If the stock trades persistently below the value of its reserves, raising capital via share sales becomes more challenging and potentially more dilutive.
Management has recently moved to shore up liquidity. In the past several weeks, Strategy raised about $747.8 million through stock sales under its at-the-market (ATM) program, lifting its U.S. dollar reserves to around $2.19 billion while keeping Bitcoin holdings unchanged, according to a company update.
The company says this reserve now covers roughly 21 months of dividend and interest payments, reducing immediate pressure to sell Bitcoin during periods of market stress. Executives have characterized selling Bitcoin as a last resort if other funding options disappear and the firm7s valuation falls below the value of its assets.
Another threshold lies below the mNAV line. If Bitcoin were to drop under Strategy7s average acquisition price near $74,000d$75,000, the company7s position would move below cost, a scenario that could further test investor confidence.
Some long-term shareholders see such periods as buying opportunities, but they can also increase volatility among short-term traders and those less committed to the strategy.
The stock7s performance reflects these doubts. Strategy shares have fallen more than 60% over the past six months and ended 2025 down nearly 50%, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq-100 last year.
The slide followed a sharp rally earlier in 2025, when the stock climbed alongside Bitcoin before reversing as risk appetite faded in the second half of the year.
Bitcoin itself remains relatively strong, trading about 28% below its all-time high but rising in recent sessions on higher volumes. The contrast between Bitcoin7s resilience and Strategy7s equity weakness has intensified debate over whether the company now functions more as an investment vehicle than as an operating business.
Critics, including economist Peter Schiff, argue that Strategy7s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy has amplified risk for shareholders and contributed to the stock7s steep drawdown.