Bitcoin enters 2026 in a tug of war between bullish and bearish forces, with traders closely watching a handful of critical price levels that could define the next major move.
The cryptocurrency began 2025 near $93,000, slid to about $74,500 in April, then surged to a record $126,199 in October before ending the year close to $87,000. That volatility has left analysts split: some argue the market has already peaked and is due for a deeper downturn, while others see limited downside and the potential for a fresh all-time high in 2026.
The debate is unfolding against questions over whether Bitcoin will continue to follow its historic four-year boom-and-bust cycle. Supporters of a structural shift point to friendlier regulation, the launch of spot exchange-traded funds and rising institutional participation as factors that could reshape long-term price behavior.
Technical charts, particularly on the monthly and weekly time frames, outline the key battlegrounds ahead.
Monthly chart: Uptrend at risk below $74,508
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has been carving out higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of an uptrend. In the two most recent corrections, the price found support at the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $88,049, making it a crucial level to watch.
A monthly close below both the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508 would break that pattern of higher lows. Such a move would signal weakening demand, with buyers stepping aside in anticipation of better entry points lower down. Analysts warn that this scenario could drag the price toward the $50,000 region and stall the broader uptrend.
Conversely, if the price holds above the 20-month EMA and pushes decisively through the psychologically important $100,000 mark, it would suggest that the longer-term uptrend remains intact. In that case, bulls may again target the all-time high near $126,199. A successful breakout above that resistance could open the way to higher projected levels around $141,188 and $178,621.
Weekly chart: Bearish signals and the $74,508 floor
Zooming in, the weekly chart paints a more cautious near-term picture. The key moving averages are close to completing a bearish crossover, something not seen since January 2022. The last time this occurred, it coincided with a prolonged downtrend.
Analysts expect the price to revisit the $74,508 area, where buyers are likely to defend support. However, in a weak sentiment environment, any rebound may be sold into. A similar pattern unfolded in April 2022, when a rally stalled at the moving averages and the decline resumed.
If history repeats and the price turns down again from the moving averages, a fresh drop toward $74,508 would increase pressure on that level. Multiple tests of the same support often weaken it. A clear break and close below $74,508 on the weekly chart could complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially paving the way for a slide toward $50,000. Such a move would likely be followed by a period of consolidation, similar to the range-bound trading seen between June 2022 and February 2023.
This negative outlook would be invalidated if the price instead rebounds and breaks above the weekly moving averages. That would reinforce $74,508 as a firm floor and could set up another attempt to challenge resistance around $126,199.
For traders, these support and resistance zones—roughly $74,508 on the downside and $100,000 to $126,199 on the upside—form the core reference points for planning strategies in early 2026.
Risk disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All trading and investment decisions involve risk. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information, and future outcomes may differ from the scenarios described.