Bitcoin’s price swings in 2025 have set the stage for a contentious 2026. The cryptocurrency started 2025 near $93,000, dropped to about $74,500 in April, rallied to a record $126,199 in October, and then ended the year around $87,000.
Analysts remain split on what comes next. Some argue that Bitcoin has already peaked and could be headed into a bear market, while others expect only limited downside before a push to fresh highs in 2026. A further point of debate is whether Bitcoin will continue to follow its historical four-year cycle, or whether factors such as friendlier regulation, the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and rising institutional demand have altered that pattern.
Although future price moves are uncertain, technical charts highlight levels that traders are watching closely on both monthly and weekly timeframes.
Key technical levels
- Crucial support: $74,508 and the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) around $88,049
- Major downside target if support fails: $50,000
- Psychological resistance: $100,000
- Record high: $126,199, with further bullish targets at $141,188 and $178,621
Monthly outlook: Uptrend at risk below key support
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has been forming higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of an uptrend. In the past two major pullbacks, the price found support at the 20-month EMA, making this indicator an important line in the sand.
A monthly close below both the 20-month EMA and the April low at $74,508 would break the pattern of higher lows. Such a move would suggest weakening demand, with buyers stepping back in anticipation of lower entry points. In that scenario, analysts warn that the uptrend could pause and the price might slide toward the $50,000 area.
If, instead, Bitcoin rebounds from support and pushes above the psychological $100,000 level, it would signal that the broader uptrend remains intact. Bulls would then look to challenge the all-time high at $126,199. A sustained breakout above that level could open the way to the next projected resistance zones around $141,188 and $178,621.
Weekly outlook: Bearish signals in the near term
The weekly chart paints a more cautious picture. Moving averages are close to forming a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022. The previous crossover preceded an extended downturn.
In the near term, the BTC/USDT pair is expected to retest support around $74,508, where buyers could attempt to defend the level. However, in a weak sentiment environment, rallies often attract sellers. In 2022, a similar pattern saw bears cap a rebound at the moving averages before the downtrend resumed.
If that pattern repeats and the price again turns lower from the moving averages, another drop to $74,508 becomes likely. Multiple tests of the same support tend to weaken it. A decisive break and close below $74,508 would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart, potentially paving the way for a decline toward $50,000. A sharp fall of that magnitude could postpone any renewed uptrend, as markets often consolidate for months after steep corrections.
The negative scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin holds above support and breaks back above the weekly moving averages. That would indicate that $74,508 is acting as a firm floor and could set up a move toward the $126,199 resistance zone.
Risk notice
This analysis is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Cryptocurrency trading and investing involve significant risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions. While efforts are made to provide accurate and timely information, no guarantee is given regarding its completeness or reliability, and no liability is accepted for losses arising from its use. Some statements in this analysis may be forward-looking and subject to change due to market conditions and other factors.