Bitcoin may already be two months into a new bear market, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
Speaking on the Milk Road show, Moreno said most inputs in his firms “bull score index” turned bearish in early November and “have yet to recover.” He highlighted a key technical level as his main confirmation.
One-year moving average as confirmation
Moreno pointed to Bitcoins one-year moving average as the trigger that confirmed the shift in market trend.
“For me the last confirmation, its a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, thats the technical indicator that I would say confirms this,” he said.
Bitcoin started 2025 at around $93,000, climbed to a peak of $126,080 in October, and then ended the year below its opening level, according to data from CoinGecko.
Realized price and potential downside
With Bitcoin trading near $88,543 as of Friday, Moreno said the coming year could see a bear-market low in the $56,000 to $60,000 range.
He based that projection on Bitcoins realized price, which reflects the average on-chain purchase price of coins. Moreno noted that in past cycles, prolonged rallies above realized price during bull markets were often followed by declines toward that level during bear phases.
Smaller drawdown than past cycles?
A drop from the $126,080 high to $56,000 would amount to roughly a 55% drawdown. Moreno said that would be milder than earlier bear markets, which saw declines of 70% to 80%.
He argued that the current downturn has not been triggered by major industry blowups and said demand patterns are changing, pointing to more stable buy-and-hold behavior from institutional investors and spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., as reflected in recent ETF flow data.