Traders on prediction platform Polymarket are assigning relatively low odds to Bitcoin reaching new highs this year, even as many Wall Street analysts forecast a delayed bull run in 2026.
In the market titled “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?”, traders currently see just a 21% chance that the cryptocurrency will touch $150,000. Expectations for lower price milestones are notably higher.
- $100,000: 80% probability
- $120,000: 45% probability
- $130,000: 35% probability
- $140,000: 28% probability
- $150,000: 21% probability
The cautious positioning contrasts with the optimism seen in some analyst forecasts. One possible factor is the apparent breakdown of Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle tied to halving events. That pattern, which had been used for years to map out potential price paths, lost credibility after Bitcoin finished 2025 in negative territory, prompting speculation that new market dynamics are taking over.
Macro and policy developments could still provide support for digital assets. Former President Donald Trump is expected to name a new US Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, and many investors anticipate interest-rate cuts under new leadership. Expectations of easier monetary policy have already helped push traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver to record highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as crypto prices have largely moved sideways.
Regulation is another potential catalyst. Two major US crypto bills — the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act — are expected to deliver clearer rules for digital assets. Supporters argue that a more defined framework could make it easier for large financial institutions to enter the market.
Several research firms, including Standard Chartered, Strategy and Bernstein, are projecting that Bitcoin could reach around $150,000 in 2026. More bullish voices, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, see scope for prices as high as $200,000 to $250,000 over a similar timeframe.
The gap between on-chain traders’ near-term pricing on Polymarket and traditional analysts’ longer-term forecasts highlights ongoing uncertainty over how quickly the next crypto upcycle will materialize.