Prediction markets are signaling caution on Bitcoin’s near-term upside, even as several major firms and industry figures project substantial gains by 2026.
Polymarket odds show skepticism
Data from prediction platform Polymarket suggests traders see limited chances of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027. The market is currently assigning:
- About a 23% probability that Bitcoin will hit $150,000
- Roughly 29% odds for $140,000
- Around 35% odds for $130,000
- Approximately 47% odds for $120,000
- Close to an 80% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000
The distribution indicates traders are more confident about a move to six figures than about further sharp rallies, and are pricing in tighter risk as 2026 progresses.
Bitcoin ended 2025 lower on the year, which appears to have cooled some bullish sentiment. While gold and silver notched fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, major cryptocurrencies were largely range-bound. The traditional four-year halving cycle that many Bitcoin analysts have used as a framework is increasingly being questioned, and that uncertainty is reflected in current market odds.
Technical picture remains cautious
Based on recent price projections, Bitcoin is expected to rise about 3% to roughly $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical indicators still point to a broadly bearish setup, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28, signaling “Fear.” Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has finished higher on 15 days, or about half the period, with average daily price moves near 2%.
Policy shifts could alter the outlook
US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair, and many investors are betting that interest rate cuts will follow. That prospect has already supported higher prices in precious metals.
In parallel, lawmakers in Washington are advancing crypto-focused legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act. Supporters argue these measures could provide clearer rules for digital assets and eventually draw more institutional participation into the sector.
Analysts maintain bullish long-term targets
Despite cautious prediction markets, several high-profile forecasts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory into 2026:
- Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has said Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing growing institutional engagement and expectations for improved regulatory clarity.
- Analysts at JPMorgan have floated a theoretical Bitcoin price of about $170,000 in 2026, using a model that compares Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assumes ongoing capital flows into crypto.
- Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook projects that Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move beyond its record peak of around $126,000, though it does not specify a precise target.
For now, prediction markets are leaning toward caution, while institutional and industry forecasts point to a more optimistic scenario. How Bitcoin ultimately trades will likely depend on monetary policy decisions, the pace of regulatory change, investor risk appetite and whether new market dynamics replace the halving-driven cycles that have shaped past bull runs.