Retail media is entering a more demanding phase in 2026. Retail media networks (RMNs) are under pressure to sustain growth as easy budget gains disappear, internal turf battles intensify and executives demand stronger performance. Advertisers, meanwhile, are being pushed to increase spend in retail channels while proving that every dollar delivers measurable results.
Against this backdrop, analyst Andrew Lipsman outlines 10 key trends that are likely to define retail media in 2026, plus one bonus prediction.
- 1. In-store retail media becomes a core battleground
After lagging European pioneers such as Tesco, major US retailers are accelerating in-store media rollouts. Kroger is planning an aggressive expansion of in-store screens in 2026, with Albertsons close behind. Other large players, including Walmart and Instacart, are expected to scale their physical media networks. By the end of 2026, in-store networks are set to become a major destination for national media budgets in the US.
- 2. Performance TV grows fast but hits ROAS limits
With Amazon Ads now accessing inventory across at least half of the ad-supported connected TV (CTV) market, closed-loop TV advertising is maturing. Performance TV will attract more national brand budgets and become too significant for CMOs to overlook.
However, a narrow focus on return on ad spend (ROAS) and other short-term metrics could constrain growth, given the premium CPMs in TV. As Adam Epstein, founder and chief executive of GigiTV, said: “ROAS – and particularly last touch ROAS – should never be the metric of success for measuring the effect of TV campaigns… if one is making investments in TV they should simultaneously be matching that with investments in advanced probabilistic measurement like incrementality testing and MMMs.”
- 3. Marketing mix models face pushback on retail media impact
Traditional marketing mix modeling (MMM), built for a GRP-era world of TV, radio and print, is struggling to capture the value of retail media in a fragmented, performance-driven ecosystem. In many models, retail media under-indexes, steering brands back to TV, major social platforms and off-site programmatic – even as those channels become less efficient at reaching priority audiences.
Incrementality methods such as causal modeling often tell a different story, placing leading RMNs among the top-performing channels. “MMMs [may] still have a purpose, but it’s not for retail media and it’s not more widely for companies in need of scalable and rapid answers about where to spend the next dollar,” said Meghan Corroon, chief executive and co-founder of Clerdata. “Too slow, not scalable, and not granular enough” is how many brand leaders now describe MMM, she added.
- 4. Third-party marketplaces fuel specialty retailer RMNs
Third-party (3P) marketplaces have been the primary engine of RMN growth for giants such as Amazon and Walmart, which together command about 85% of the US retail media market. Many large specialty retailers, however, are only starting to tap this model. New 3P marketplace launches from players including Best Buy, Lowe’s and Ulta Beauty are expanding their advertiser bases into mid- and long-tail sellers, diversifying revenue and accelerating media monetization.
- 5. Creator activations move to the center of RMN strategies
Creator-led advertising is becoming a priority for major brands. Unilever, for example, plans to raise social media’s share of its marketing budget from 30% to 50%, with creators at the core of that investment. On the retail side, Walmart Connect’s push into the creator economy is expected to influence other RMNs.
Because RMNs sit on rich first-party data, they are well placed to identify effective creators and prove the impact of creator campaigns across on-site, off-site, CTV and in-store environments. “The pressure from merchant groups, and even customer experience teams, is forcing RMN teams to create more cohesion and sync with the entire retail shopping journey,” said Leah Logan, VP of retail media at Inmar Intelligence. “The missing link continues to be a content strategy. Creator video fills RMNs’ need for creative assets while enabling discovery, brand storytelling, and influencing purchase for advertisers.”
- 6. Agentic commerce has little effect on ecommerce traffic
Despite fears that AI agents and agentic commerce could divert shoppers away from retailer sites, overall ecommerce traffic is expected to keep rising in 2026. Any marginal loss in direct on-site visits is likely to be offset by incremental demand generated through AI-driven search and recommendation. Lipsman argues that, rather than posing an existential threat, AI-assisted shopping is more likely to support – not suppress – retail media growth.
- 7. Digital endcaps gain prominence online and in-store
Digital endcaps – high-impact display and video units on retailer sites – are gaining favor as tools for driving incremental sales and attracting new-to-brand customers, even without direct clicks. As sponsored product placements become more crowded, brands are expected to shift budgets toward these formats.
The trend extends in-store as retailers deploy digital signage at endcaps. Tesco has already demonstrated the value of in-store digital endcaps in the UK, while US chains such as CVS are now rolling out similar offerings, encouraging others to follow.
- 8. Social video tightens the path from discovery to purchase
Off-site retail media budgets are likely to move away from open web display and toward social video, as platforms prove their ability to connect discovery and conversion. Social environments are particularly effective in sparking product discovery, which strengthens the performance of lower-funnel retail media.
Brands that coordinate social campaigns with retail media spend often see compounding effects. For example, TikTok activity layered on top of Amazon investment has been linked to double-digit lifts in conversion rates and ROAS.
- 9. Experiential retail media focuses on long-term value
Retail media has mostly been evaluated through short-term ROAS from online sales. As in-store and experiential formats grow, measurement is broadening to include metrics tied to customer lifetime value.
Sam’s Club is positioning itself as a “Retail Experience Network,” emphasizing experiential activations and digital signage. Product sampling is emerging as one of the most powerful levers for immediate trial and conversion, with effects that show up across both short- and long-term attribution windows.
- 10. Challenger brands exploit retail media to win share in a downturn
In recessions, established brands have typically gained share by sustaining their marketing budgets. In 2026, Lipsman expects many challenger brands to use retail media to flip that script. More agile by design, these brands can test emerging formats such as in-store media more quickly, using conquesting and new customer acquisition tactics.
Challenger brands are also more likely to optimize to metrics like ROAS and new-to-brand that align closely with incremental sales. Large incumbents, by contrast, may remain invested in tactics such as branded search and retargeting that look strong on paper but add limited true incrementality, reinforcing attribution “gaming” to satisfy the C-suite.
Bonus prediction: RMNs reclaim control of first-party data
Lipsman expects RMNs to reassess how freely they share their first-party shopper data with major media platforms. While many retailers restrict data access to brand partners, they have often been more willing to provide similar data to platform partners, eroding a key competitive advantage over companies such as large search and social players or AI providers.
As platforms build comparable data assets and sell access at scale, RMNs risk disintermediation. In response, Lipsman predicts retailers will deploy new technologies and safeguards to claw back control of their first-party data and re-establish it as a core strategic asset.
Andrew Lipsman is a US-based independent analyst and consultant. He writes the Media, Ads + Commerce newsletter on Substack and will contribute to The Drum’s expanded retail and commerce media coverage throughout 2026.