Crypto analytics firm Santiment is warning that retail fear of missing out (FOMO) could return if Bitcoin pushes decisively above $92,000, as the leading cryptocurrency trades just below $90,000 at the start of 2026.
Santiment data shows Bitcoin’s social sentiment turning sharply bullish, reaching its strongest positive reading in more than six months despite relatively muted trading volumes in the post-holiday period.
Retail sentiment spikes near $90,000
Brian, Santiment’s head of content, said Bitcoin’s advance toward the psychologically important $90,000 mark often draws in smaller traders.
“Usually when we see something like 89.9K, there’s a bit of a retail push to at least hit that milestone,” he noted, adding that such moves can be followed by volatility as limit sell orders are triggered and FOMO builds.
Social data at the turn of the year presents a mixed picture. Bitcoin’s social volume rose only 0.06% from the prior week, while Ethereum-related discussion edged up 1%.
Mid-cap altcoins drew more attention: Dogecoin mentions climbed 57% and Cardano discussions rose 19%, hinting that some retail traders may be shifting toward smaller tokens after what market participants described as the “bloodbath” at the end of 2025.
Santiment’s positive-to-negative sentiment ratio for Bitcoin nearly reached 2:1 on January 1, the highest level since early October and the strongest bullish turn in over half a year. However, analysts are cautious about reading too much into the move, noting that it coincides with traders returning from holidays rather than a clear shift in conviction.
Sentiment appears concentrated in Bitcoin. Readings for Ethereum and XRP remain closer to neutral, while mentions of “higher” or “above” outnumber references to “lower” or “below” in Bitcoin discussions, underscoring the current optimism.
Santiment also points out that historically, extreme bullish sentiment has often preceded price pullbacks as markets move against crowded expectations.
Whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin
On-chain data paints a more constructive backdrop. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated about 65,500 Bitcoin since November 30, including roughly 55,400 BTC in the last two weeks alone. That cohort now controls its largest share of circulating supply since November 10.
Maxim Balashevich, Santiment’s founder and CEO, said part of the current price action may reflect traders positioning ahead of anticipated institutional purchases, including those expected from major corporate buyers.
“There could be some players betting on the weekend buying,” he said, suggesting that hopes of large orders could help “engage some retail” in early-year accumulation.
This whale accumulation contrasts with typical late-cycle behavior, when large holders sell into retail strength. At the same time, smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have continued to add through recent volatility, creating an unusual dynamic in which both large and small investors are buying.
Historically, rallies have tended to be more sustainable when whales buy while retail investors reduce exposure, adding uncertainty to the current setup.
Separate market commentary has highlighted a challenging backdrop heading into 2026, including the failure to sustain a move above $100,000 in 2025, the absence of a late-year rally, continued exchange-traded fund outflows and growing macroeconomic pressures, even as large holders keep accumulating on price dips.
Sideways trade likely before next big move
Santiment expects choppy, range-bound trading into the first full week of January.
“We need to wait until Monday to get more data,” Balashevich said, noting that many U.S. traders are still on holiday, which can reduce liquidity and distort short-term signals.
He sees room for modest upside into Sunday, driven by speculation about institutional buying, followed by either a pullback early in the week or further consolidation, depending on broader market conditions.
Santiment’s metrics show the 30-day market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio hovering near breakeven, indicating that short-term holders are neither significantly in profit nor deeply underwater. The 365-day MVRV, by contrast, suggests long-term holders are down about 11.5% from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $126,000 set in October.
Network growth remained solid into year-end, but profit-taking jumped to a six-week high on January 2 as traders took advantage of the move toward $90,000.
Looking ahead, Santiment says the key question is whether Bitcoin can break above $92,000 without igniting excessive retail euphoria. While whale accumulation offers a supportive backdrop, the firm warns that a FOMO-driven breakout above major resistance could ultimately set the stage for a sharper correction once speculative appetite peaks.