Unusual trading on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket is drawing scrutiny after three newly created wallets collectively booked more than $630,000 in profits by betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being out of office just hours before his arrest.
On-chain data analyzed by blockchain tracker Lookonchain and shared on January 4 shows the wallets were created and funded several days in advance, then remained inactive until shortly before the key political development.
In the final hours leading up to Maduro’s capture, the accounts opened large “Yes” positions on markets forecasting that he would no longer be in office by late January or February 2026.
The most profitable address, wallet 0x31a5, reportedly invested about $34,000 and realized close to $410,000 in profit after the market resolved.
A second address, 0xa72D, committed just under $6,000 and earned roughly $75,000. A third trader, using the name SBet365, invested around $25,000 and made approximately $145,600. In total, the three wallets generated profits of about $630,484.
Suspicion has mounted because the activity was tightly concentrated. All three wallets focused exclusively on markets tied to Venezuela and Maduro, with no record of participation in other political, economic, or social prediction markets.
The timing and narrow scope of the trades have fueled allegations that the traders may have acted on non-public information rather than relying on open data or probability modeling.
On-chain transfers also suggest coordinated behavior, with funds flowing into Polymarket shortly before the bets were placed and being withdrawn soon after the markets resolved. This pattern contrasts with many Polymarket users, who typically diversify their exposure across multiple events and longer timeframes.
The controversy escalated once Maduro’s capture was confirmed, effectively settling the relevant markets in favor of the “Yes” outcome and locking in the traders’ gains.
Polymarket is a permissionless platform and does not conduct identity checks on participants or assess their intent. The episode is now fueling broader debate over how vulnerable open prediction markets may be to insider-driven strategies during high-stakes geopolitical events.