U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, an operation Washington framed as enforcing U.S. indictments that accuse him and senior allies of drug trafficking and corruption.
Officials described the move as a law-enforcement action. Maduro is expected to make an initial appearance in federal court in Manhattan on Monday, according to reports.
Oil and equities react
WTI crude futures fell to around $56.60 per barrel on Saturday, their lowest level since February 2021, as traders weighed how Washington might manage Venezuela’s significant oil reserves under U.S. control.
Chevron shares jumped 11%, a move market commentators including Kobeissi Letter linked to expectations that additional Venezuelan supply could be unlocked.
Crypto market holds steady
Cryptocurrency prices were largely unmoved by the geopolitical shock. Bitcoin and Ethereum each rose about 1%, while total crypto market capitalization edged up 2% to $3.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
The events are expected to increase scrutiny of how digital assets are used in and around Venezuela, where crypto has become embedded in both everyday commerce and state-linked transactions.
State-linked use of digital assets
Blockchain intelligence firms and former officials have long alleged that Venezuelan authorities quietly accumulated Bitcoin and stablecoins via commodity-linked deals as sanctions tightened, including oil sales settled outside traditional banking channels. Caracas has never acknowledged such holdings.
Those claims suggest crypto has functioned not only as a lifeline for citizens but also as a parallel settlement layer for trade connected to the state when access to dollars and correspondent banks narrowed. Some estimates put Venezuela’s Bitcoin and crypto holdings at about $60 billion, though no definitive figure is available.
Crypto as a civilian rail
Venezuela has relied on digital assets for years to work around sanctions, currency collapse, and a dysfunctional banking system. In 2018, Maduro introduced the petro, a state-backed cryptocurrency tied to oil and mineral reserves, in an attempt to bypass U.S. sanctions and attract foreign funding. The project failed to gain traction and was later discontinued.
As restrictions on access to the global financial system tightened, stablecoins increasingly served as a de facto dollar substitute for everyday transactions. That has given households and businesses an alternative to the bolívar, while also raising concerns that the same channels can support sanctions evasion and rerouted energy payments.
“Crypto and stablecoins have long played a dual role in Venezuela: they function as an essential financial rail for civilians in a fragile economy, while also offering an alternative settlement channel that state-linked actors and intermediaries can exploit when sanctions constrain access to the formal financial system,” Ari Redbord, global head of policy at blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, told Decrypt.
Narco-terror charges against Maduro
Federal prosecutors allege Maduro led a long-running narco-terrorist conspiracy involving Venezuela’s Cartel de Los Soles and Colombia’s FARC, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization that became one of the world’s largest cocaine producers between 1999 and 2020.
The superseding indictment claims senior Venezuelan officials used state institutions and the military to move large quantities of cocaine into the United States, and that the group sought to use drugs as a weapon against the country.
“The absence of any reference to cryptocurrency in the superseding indictment does not diminish this risk; it reflects prosecutorial focus on narcotics, corruption, and violence rather than a judgment that crypto is irrelevant to the regime’s broader financial ecosystem,” Redbord said.
What analysts are watching next
Redbord said that following military action, financial systems tend to become more fragile as conventional trade and payment channels are disrupted. In such environments, “people and networks turn more quickly to alternative ways to move money, including stablecoins,” he noted.
He also expects an intensified response from governments and private firms, creating a more volatile landscape in which facilitators adapt quickly and transaction patterns can shift in a short period.
Redbord pointed to three early indicators that could show how Venezuela’s financial flows evolve from here:
- Stablecoin demand and pricing: Rising local premiums, faster turnover, or shifts toward the most liquid stablecoin networks could signal stress in traditional payment systems and greater reliance on crypto for daily transactions and cross-border settlement.
- Concentration among intermediaries: Under pressure, activity often consolidates around a smaller set of exchanges, over-the-counter brokers, payment agents, or informal facilitators that still offer reliable liquidity.
- Network behavior: Increased wallet rotation, shorter holding periods, added intermediary layers, and more fragmented routing may indicate efforts to reduce detection risk, while sudden drops in activity linked to specific services could point to effective enforcement or de-risking.