Bitcoin has climbed 1.87% in the last 24 hours and 3.61% over the past week, currently trading near $109,192. Despite this upward movement, veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of a possible major decline ahead.
Brandt’s analysis suggests Bitcoin could drop by as much as 75%, which would reduce its price from around $109,800 to nearly $27,290. This would erase more than two years of gains and return Bitcoin to early 2023 lows—a scenario few investors have prepared for.
He draws parallels with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. After peaking at $65,000 in April 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin experienced a sharp fall, losing over half its value. Recently, Bitcoin reached highs above $108,000 in December 2024 and January 2025 before dropping under $100,000, then recovering to near $112,000 last month. Brandt believes a similar breakdown could be unfolding.
Technical indicators reinforce concerns. The 9-period exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 21-period EMA on the daily chart, a signal previously associated with significant downtrends. Sustained closes below these EMAs, especially if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $108,000 level, may trigger panic selling.
Market data shows mixed but bearish tendencies. Trading volume surged nearly 30% to $100 billion, and open interest rose 1%. Long-to-short ratios on Binance and OKX stand at approximately 0.55 and 0.53, indicating more short positions than longs. Although heavy short positions can lead to a squeeze if prices hold, the current setup suggests heightened risk.
Bitcoin-linked funds have seen about $57 million in outflows over the past week, a small portion of the roughly $50 billion assets under management. In contrast, Ethereum products gained $295 million, indicating capital is rotating within the crypto market rather than exiting it entirely.
Bitcoin now faces a critical test of the $108,000 support zone. The direction it takes could determine whether it falls toward the mid-$20,000 range or continues to climb. Brandt advises investors to manage risk carefully and maintain tight positions in anticipation of possible volatility.