Ripples first major XRP escrow unlock on January 1, 2018, introduced a predictable supply-release framework that continues to shape the tokens market dynamics.
At that time, XRP traded at about $2.20, near the peak of the 20172018 cryptocurrency bull run. An investor putting $100 into XRP on that date would have acquired roughly 45.45 XRP.
As of January 4, with XRP around $2.09, that position would now be worth about $94.55, implying a loss of roughly 5.5% over seven years. Despite periods of sharp rallies and steep declines, XRP trades slightly below its level at the first escrow unlock, leaving early long-term holders with modest nominal losses.
Ripple introduced its escrow system in late 2017, locking 55 billion XRP into time-based contracts to control supply. Up to 1 billion XRP is released each month, with a substantial portion typically returned to escrow. The mechanism aims to make supply more predictable and support market liquidity.
While the structure has improved transparency and eased concerns over unexpected large releases, it has also prompted debate about ongoing supply pressure and XRPs long-term valuation.
Since 2018, XRPs performance has been influenced by multiple factors, including the post-2018 crypto bear market, changing investor risk appetite, and regulatory uncertainty linked to Ripples extended legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Competition in blockchain-based payments and adoption of Ripples cross-border transaction products have also played roles.
From a technical perspective, XRP is trading near $2.09, just above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $2.04, indicating relatively stable short-term price action with a slightly supportive tone.
However, XRP remains below its 200-day SMA near $2.46, signaling a still-bearish longer-term trend and suggesting that a sustained positive shift in momentum has yet to materialize. The gap between the short- and long-term averages points to lingering downside pressure despite recent consolidation.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is around 57, placing XRP in neutral territory. This indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with a mild upward bias but limited conviction behind the current move.