Trying to forecast how major platforms will evolve has become increasingly difficult. Many industry expectations for 2025 did not materialize, from TikTok’s future in the U.S. to Meta’s antitrust battles. Looking ahead, observers see 2026 less in terms of bold breakthroughs and more in terms of what is unlikely to change.
Here are the major developments advertisers and platforms don’t expect to see next year.
TikTok’s U.S. ownership will remain unresolved
More than a year into Washington’s standoff with Beijing over TikTok, the app’s fate in the U.S. is still uncertain. Marketers, however, are learning to operate amid that ambiguity.
Michelle Wiltz, managing director of paid social at Brainlabs, said the political tug-of-war is less about closure and more about leverage for both governments. “2026 won’t deliver a clean answer about TikTok’s U.S. ownership,” she said. “Instead, it will reinforce a new operating reality: geopolitical ambiguity is a feature, not a bug and smart marketers plan for resilience, not resolution.”
Threads will not become a major ad revenue engine
No platform has replicated what Twitter was as a real-time, culture-defining feed. Even as X, its immediacy remains its core differentiator.
Meta has begun testing ads on Threads, but buyers do not yet see it as a standalone channel. For now, it functions more as an incremental placement within Meta’s broader ad tools, including Advantage+.
Lauren Beerling, group director of performance media at Collective Measures, noted that Twitter’s value stemmed from its role as a hub for journalists, politicians, breaking news and cultural urgency. “Threads is intentionally avoiding that energy, meaning it won’t inherit the same commercial value,” she said. “Meta seems far more focused on making Threads a ‘pleasant conversation app’ than a real-time newswire. That will attract users, but not the intent or immediacy that generates big ad revenue.”
Snap will not suddenly become a major profit machine
Snap had one of its stronger years in 2025, generating $1.51 billion in revenue in the third quarter. Yet compared with Meta, YouTube and TikTok, its scale remains relatively small.
Colleen Fielder, client strategy and insights partner at Basis Technologies, pointed to eMarketer data estimating that Snap will capture just 2.1% of social ad spend in 2025. Alternative revenue streams are limited so far. “Snap’s alternative revenue paths feel limited — the Bitmoji subscription is fairly surface-level and while there’s a lot of buzz around a Perplexity partnership, it’s far too early to treat that as a major revenue engine,” she said.
Regulatory and legal challenges, including Australia’s ban on users under 16 and an ongoing lawsuit with New York City, further complicate growth and advertiser confidence. “A dramatic profitability jump next year seems unlikely,” Fielder added.
AI budgets will not straightforwardly replace jobs
In 2025, a common narrative linked AI-driven efficiency with reduced headcount. But recent layoffs suggested many companies were reallocating spending toward AI rather than purely cutting staff costs.
“Companies will continue to use AI to reduce labor costs — especially at the top, where efficiency narratives sell well to boards and CFOs,” said Dan Connor, managing partner of retail at Brainlabs. “What will slow is the belief that high spending itself equals progress. Companies will stop equating massive AI budgets with innovation; 2026 is the shift from exuberance to efficiency.”
In other words, AI will keep reshaping work, but large, indiscriminate job cuts tied solely to AI spending are not expected to define the year.
OpenAI will not remain ad-free
Industry watchers view an OpenAI ads business as a question of timing rather than possibility. CEO Sam Altman and head of applications Fidji Simo have both signaled commercial ambitions, while the appointments of chief revenue officer Denise Dresser and Christina MacDonald, lead counsel for ads in ChatGPT, underline that direction.
“Even with the recent ‘Code Red’ which caused OpenAI to pause the ads rollout to focus on product quality, the groundwork is clearly being laid,” said Robert Kurtz, strategic business outcomes partner at Basis Technologies. “2026 feels like the year they start testing ads in earnest.”
Google will not be forced to spin off its ad tech stack
In April, Judge Leonie Brinkema backed the U.S. Department of Justice’s view that Google held illegal monopolies in digital advertising. By September, as Google’s ad tech antitrust trial neared its conclusion, the DOJ focused on AdX, the company’s ad exchange, arguing that structural changes could weaken Google’s ad server, though not necessarily require a full divestiture.
Google has pushed back, calling the DOJ’s remedies excessive and proposing alternatives. A ruling is expected in 2026, but a complete breakup of its ad tech stack is not considered likely in the near term, even if the company faces restrictions or behavioral remedies.
Retail media will not consolidate
Retail media networks surged in 2025, intensifying competition and complexity for advertisers. That fragmentation is expected to continue rather than give way to rapid consolidation.
“I expect continued fragmentation in 2026 with a few players growing faster, but not true consolidation yet,” said Haley Feazell, vp of global media at Mindgruve. “Real shakeouts are likely later, once growth slows, and operating costs rise — similar to the timeline we’ve seen with CTV, is my expectation.”
Amy Rumpler, evp of integrated client solutions at Basis Technologies, said consolidation is particularly unlikely among larger, more advanced networks with significant ad revenue and data assets, such as major pharmacy and grocery chains. “The benefits to them owning and operating their own independent networks, where they profit off of O&O inventory and audience data, is too far along to entertain consolidation with another entity,” she said. “Unless the deal was massive (like Amazon buys all of Kroger and consolidates it with their Whole Foods brands), I don’t see it happening.”
Perplexity is unlikely to stay independent
Perplexity spent much of 2025 as a potential acquisition target. Reports suggested both Apple and Meta explored deals, though Meta ultimately invested in ScaleAI instead.
At the same time, Perplexity has been expanding its reach and monetization. Partnerships with companies including Snap, PayPal, Pitchbook and Getty, along with efforts to improve publisher monetization and the launch of its Comet browser, have broadened distribution and revenue streams.
Those moves strengthen Perplexity’s appeal to acquirers or major investors, setting up 2026 as a year when a deal becomes more likely than continued independence.
Amazon will not overtake The Trade Desk
Amazon’s ads business poses a serious challenge to many players, but it still has not displaced The Trade Desk as the dominant demand-side platform for the open web.
The Trade Desk’s scale and deep agency relationships have allowed it to maintain fees and positioning. Amazon, for its part, continues to pursue more of advertisers’ programmatic budgets and has reportedly funded like-for-like tests to lure spend away from The Trade Desk as it attempts to position its DSP as an alternative backbone for the open web.
For now, though, Amazon remains a powerful competitor rather than a direct replacement.
YouTube livestreaming will not flop
YouTube has renewed its push into live video, highlighting new live features during its latest Made on YouTube event. In a year marked by concern over AI-generated content, live formats also offer a clearer sense of authenticity.
“Live is the most human format we have: messy, unedited, impossible for AI to fake convincingly (at least for now),” said Natalie Silverstein, chief innovation officer at Collectively.
Industry observers expect YouTube’s long-term product strategy to support live streaming’s growth. “I think it will work because everything they touch turns to gold,” said Shamsul Chowdhury, former Jellyfish executive and social media expert. “Live video has that rawness to it, almost like that added authenticity. And if they can have some brand safety measures, advertisers will play.”
While livestreaming still has to prove its staying power on YouTube at scale, few expect it to be a short-lived experiment.