Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered above $107,000 on Monday during the European session, following a slight decline last week. However, market sentiment remains cautious as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its fourth day with ongoing missile and drone strikes.
Despite geopolitical tensions, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet added 1,112 BTC on Monday, raising its total holdings to 10,000 BTC. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs reported inflows of $1.37 billion last week, a sharp increase from the previous week’s outflows.
The Kobeissi Letter noted contrasting signals between global markets and geopolitical events. While the conflict escalated, equities markets turned positive and oil prices rose modestly, with gold declining. The report suggests that if a prolonged conflict were expected, oil prices would have surged above $100 per barrel, indicating market optimism for a possible peace deal. Still, analysts caution that any further escalation could prompt risk-off sentiment, negatively impacting risky assets like Bitcoin.
Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance at a Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $108,064, established after a sharp drop from $110,274 to $105,671 last week. BTC is currently testing this resistance level. A rejection at this point could lead to a retest of support around $102,943, near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and potentially $100,000. Indicators show mixed signals: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a recent bearish crossover.
If Bitcoin breaks above the $108,064 resistance and closes above this FVG zone, it may target a move toward its May 22 all-time high near $111,980.
- Bitcoin: Largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, designed as a decentralized digital currency without third-party intermediaries.
- Altcoins: Cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin; some consider Ethereum separately due to different protocol development paths. Litecoin is often cited as the first altcoin.
- Stablecoins: Cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the US Dollar, designed to maintain price stability and provide liquidity on and off crypto markets.
- Bitcoin dominance: The ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total crypto market, indicating investor preference for Bitcoin relative to altcoins.
Correction: The report cited is from The Kobeissi Letter, not Kobessi.