Bitcoin’s put-call ratio has surged ahead of Friday’s $14 billion options expiry on Deribit, signaling increased interest in put options. However, this rise may not fully indicate bearish sentiment this time.
The put-call ratio tracks open interest in put options versus calls. A higher ratio typically reflects bearish sentiment, as puts offer downside protection. Yet, much of the recent increase is fueled by cash-secured puts, a strategy used to generate yield and accumulate BTC.
Cash-secured puts involve selling put options while holding enough stablecoins to buy Bitcoin if the price drops and the option is exercised. The seller collects a premium, effectively earning yield with potential to accumulate BTC at a lower price.
Lin Chen, head of business development – Asia at Deribit, told CoinDesk, “The put/call ratio has risen to 0.72, up from just above 0.5 in 2024, indicating growing interest in puts often structured as cash-secured puts.”
On Friday at 08:00 UTC, 141,271 BTC options contracts—worth over $14 billion—will expire on Deribit, accounting for more than 40% of total open interest. Of these, 81,994 are calls and the rest puts. Each contract represents one BTC.
Chen noted that nearly 20% of expiring calls are in-the-money, with strike prices below Bitcoin’s current spot rate near $106,000. “This suggests call buyers have performed well this cycle, matching steady inflows into BTC ETFs,” he said.
Holders of profitable calls may take profits, hedge, or roll positions into the next expiry, potentially increasing market volatility. Chen added, “As this is a major quarterly expiry, heightened volatility is expected around the event.”
Most calls will expire out-of-the-money. The $300 strike call holds the highest open interest, reflecting hopes for a sharp price rally earlier in the year. The max pain price—where option buyers lose the most—is around $102,000.
Current market flows show mixed expectations with a slight bullish tilt toward expiry. Data from crypto market maker Wintermute shows neutral flows characterized by selling straddles (indicating low volatility expectations), selling calls near $105,000, and shorting puts around $100,000 for the June 27 expiry.
Wintermute’s OTC desk said, “Flows skew neutral with straddle/call selling around 105K and short puts at 100K (27 Jun), pointing to tight price action into expiry. Selective call buying between 108K and 112K for July and September adds a capped bullish bias. Implied volatility remains elevated.”