Global advertising expenditure continues to rise, yet its effectiveness is waning. Forecasts predict ad spend will near $1 trillion in 2025, a 30% real-term increase over 15 years, but the return is diminishing.
Studies reveal a significant drop in the impact of creative campaigns. Research from Peter Field’s Crisis in Creative Effectiveness and a recent global analysis by System1 and Effie Worldwide show fewer ads are driving key metrics like market share, brand awareness, trust, and consideration.
Data from Firework.com indicates Meta’s return on ad spend has fallen from $4 to $1.75 per dollar. This decline prompts the crucial question: why?
Creativity remains essential, accounting for up to 75% of advertising success. Effective ads evoke emotion, building memory and influencing behavior. However, the industry’s output has become less emotional and engaging, shifting towards fact-heavy, uninspired content.
Effie’s dataset confirms a trend towards rational, lifeless advertising that fails to capture audience attention or create memorable impressions. Orlando Wood, System1’s Chief Innovation Officer, bluntly describes modern ads as boring.
Changes in media consumption also play a role. While digital media dominates, linear TV continues to generate over half of UK advertising profits. The rise of short-term digital metrics like clicks and conversions has led marketers to prioritize immediate results over long-term brand building.
Contrary to popular belief, human attention spans have not significantly declined. Instead, ad clutter has surged dramatically—daily impressions per person have increased from approximately 600 in 2008 to over 1,200 in 2024, due mainly to digital growth.
The oversaturation of ads, combined with weaker creative efforts and fleeting digital exposures, contributes to declining effectiveness. The expanding use of AI-generated content may exacerbate this trend by flooding channels with even more material.
The solution calls for a renewed focus on emotional and distinctive creativity, sustained over time. Marketers who embrace this approach continue to achieve profitable growth despite these challenges.
Andrew Tindall, SVP of Global Partnerships at System1 and a seasoned advertising expert, advocates for evidence-based marketing that balances creativity and data. He emphasizes that when done well, marketing not only drives economic growth but also connects with audiences on a meaningful level.
Efforts to reverse the current decline must prioritize quality over quantity to restore advertising’s true value.