Former Bungie CEO Harold Ryan founded ProbablyMonsters in 2016 with the goal of transforming AAA game development to offer more predictable, respectful work environments for developers. After pioneering the games-as-a-service (GaaS) model with Destiny, Ryan now acknowledges the need for change given market shifts.
ProbablyMonsters no longer pursues AAA-scale projects. The closure of its spin-off Firewalk Studios following the failure of its debut title highlighted difficulties sustaining large-scale launches amid a market saturated with free-to-play blockbusters and rising budgets.
Instead, the company adopts a diversified, scattergun strategy resembling the 2000s’ AA publishers. It plans to release multiple smaller, quicker-to-develop games across various genres and platforms annually.
The first two titles, both launching later this year at $19.99, are Storm Lancers, an 80s anime-inspired action rogue-like with local co-op for Nintendo Switch, and Ire: A Prologue, a single-player psychological horror game set on a mysterious Bermuda Triangle ship, available on Steam and Epic Games Store. Both were developed in approximately 18 months by industry veterans.
Storm Lancers aims to distinguish itself through its vibrant retro art style, high-quality audio, and cooperative gameplay. Ire: A Prologue serves as a potential franchise pilot to gauge audience reception.
Beyond these, ProbablyMonsters is developing an open-world RPG, a co-op Souls-like rogue, and an extraction shooter, reflecting the studio’s intent to adapt fluidly to changing player interests.
The company has restructured from a hub-and-spoke model with multiple independent studios to smaller, integrated teams supported by centralized engineering and production. This shift reduced the workforce from around 400 to 200 employees and involved closing internal studios such as Cauldron, Battle Barge, and Hidden Grove.
Ryan emphasizes agility, sustainability, and tailoring projects to suitable audiences and platforms rather than relying solely on one-size-fits-all large-scale investments.
Reflecting on its original vision, Ryan notes that signing AAA games with publishers was initially a way to secure reliable funding. As the industry evolves, ProbablyMonsters now prioritizes sustainable careers for developers with varied game types and business models.
Despite founding one of the genre’s most successful GaaS games, Ryan acknowledges that live-service models are not suitable for all players or projects. He remains open to creating service-based games but stresses focusing on player experience and consumption preferences.
ProbablyMonsters’ recent $250 million funding round in 2022 was followed by tougher investment conditions. Still, Ryan believes the new approach is working, with two upcoming releases demonstrating their strategy’s viability.
Ultimately, Ryan calls for sustainable business models allowing teams to consistently deliver profitable, engaging games while fostering healthy work environments.