Valhil Capital’s recent valuation study forecasts that XRP could achieve a fair market value between $4,813 and $9,000 by 2030. This projection is based on XRP’s growing adoption and its dual function as both a transaction medium and a store of value.
The estimate stems from the Athey & Mitchnick Model, which combines economic theory, real-world data, and digital asset market behavior to predict XRP’s value. Unlike traditional pricing models focusing mainly on transaction volume, this model emphasizes XRP’s store-of-value role.
The study outlines a virtuous cycle: rising adoption increases transaction demand, which raises XRP’s price. Higher prices encourage holders to store XRP, reducing circulating supply and further boosting demand and price.
Key assumptions of the model include:
- $700 billion in daily transaction volume
- One-second transaction speed
- 56.5 billion XRP in circulation
- 10% discount rate
- A five-year adoption horizon ending in 2030
Under a conservative scenario with 10% of global transactions using the XRP Ledger by 2030, the price is projected at $4,813. Sensitivity analysis shows potential prices ranging from $908 to over $9,000 if store-of-value demand scales from $100 trillion to $1 quadrillion.
The model highlights a “Virtuous Cycle Flywheel,” where increased adoption leads to rising prices, incentivizing holders to lock up XRP, reducing supply and accelerating price growth. This cycle could trigger exponential growth, especially if XRP captures significant markets such as global remittances and foreign exchange settlements.
While Valhil Capital describes the model as conservative—it excludes markets like derivatives and real estate—it recognizes limitations, including potential future use cases and the impact of central bank digital currencies.
Overall, the study presents XRP as potentially evolving from a quick payment solution to a critical digital store of value within the global financial system.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions. The views expressed do not reflect The Crypto Basic’s position and the publication is not responsible for any financial losses.